BEING CELEBRITY IN CHIEF ISN'T ALL FACIAL SCRUBS AND SKIN MOISTURIZERS. NOPE, THERE'S HARD STUFF TOO. LIKE READING.
LOTS AND LOTS OF READING.
AS BARRY O RECENTLY DETAILED, TO BE CELEBRITY IN CHIEF REQUIRES HIS READING, "GOOD HOUSEKEEPING, MARIE CLAIRE, O, THE OPRAH MAGAZINE, POPULAR MECHANICS" FOR THOSE RARE TIME WHEN HE FEELS A LITTLE BUTCH, "REDBOOK, ESQUIRE" WHEN HE'S TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHAT MEN WANT "AND COSMOPOLITAN."
RESPONDING TO A COMMON CRITIQUE OF HIS ATTEMPTS AT LEADERSHIP, BARRY O REPLIED THAT HE DID NOT DAWDLE OR DILLY DALLY, RATHER "I HAPPEN TO BE DOING A LOT OF QUIZZES AND THOSE COSMO QUIZZES ARE HARD! ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR MR. RIGHT AND NOT JUST MR. RIGHT NOW!"
FROM THE TCI WIRE:
Conor Friedersdorf (The Atlantic) observes, "After the September 11 terrorist attacks, mainstream newspapers and television programs briefly chose to be more graphic in their coverage, rightly judging that sanitizing the events of that day would do us a disservice. But why is it less important to fully confront the reality of what is happening now in Afghanistan and Iraq? The United States Armed Forces has lost 5,885 people in those two countries. When did you last see a photograph of one of their coffins? Has the story of an innocent Iraqi killed by our forces ever flashed across your TV screen? The figures are mere abstractions." Yesterday, AP noted another American soldier has died in Iraq and this "marks the sixth U.S. soldier to die in Iraq so far this month." If that's new to you, see last week's "5 US soldiers have died this month."
Yes, US soldiers remain in Iraq. For how long? Scott Horton spoke with Gareth Porter about this Friday on Antiwar Radio (and about Porter's most recent article):
Gareth Porter: I mention that both American officials -- an American official and the Iraqi intelligence source that I got this story from agree that there's no guarantee that the al-Maliki regime is going to survive this summer. But he is under a lot of political pressure there from a protest movement that the Sunnis are mounting and one of the big questions is whether the Sadrists will join that protest movement? And should that happen, then the short term outlook for the al-Maliki regime is very dark indeed. But there's another factor even beyond that. And that is that the Iraqi military is quite upset that -- that al-Maliki is dawdling over and refusing to go ahead with signing this letter -- sending a letter to the White House requesting the stationing of troops. The Iraqi military which is very close to the US military wants that very badly. And I had a hint -- even more than a hint -- that it could be the case that the Iraqi military would try to carry out its own move against the Maliki regime.
Scott Horton: In order so that they can keep the American troops there --
Gareth Porter: Exactly.
Scott Horton: Which means that they're going to have to fight another civil war against Moqtada al-Sadr.
Gareth Porter: Exactly. Yep. And I think that is certainly something to watch for very closely.
Scott Horton: Well now -- so -- It's been a long time and I know the Supreme Islamic Council ain't what it used to be and whatever, but is it fair to say that the Iraqi army right now, I guess it's the leadership roles that are most important, but that's mostly made up of old Badr corps type rather than Madhi Army guys? Because I know there were a lot of Mahdi Army that went to volunteer for the Iraqi army as well, right?
Gareth Porter: That's right. Although there are some -- in key positions -- there are some Ba'athists as well.
Scott Horton: Well look, if-if Maliki's biggest threat is from Sunni protesters then he's going to really need Moqtada al-Sadr -- which means that he's not going to sign Obama's document.
Gareth Porter: Oh, I think that's right. I mean I am absolutely convinced that this is not going to happen. I think it's very, very unlikely, let's put it that way. I would be very surprised if he were to move in that direction at this point. It just seems to me the factors are all lined up in the same direction.
No one knows what will happen and Porter's an informed observer of the scene so his take is worth listening to and considering. That doesn't make it right. Counter-take on Porter. Under pressure from the military, Nouri signs up for the US soldiers to remain on Iraqi soil. Most likely scenario in which Nouri extends the SOFA?
Factoring in the military, Nouri signs up (if he hasn't already) because he's aware Moqtada al-Sadr is (a) weak and (b) all talk. Moqtada is in Iran. He's made a life there for years -- largely due to the outstanding arrest warrant in Iraq that he fears may be enforced. Moqtada was among those wanting a referendum on the SOFA and Nouri promised that in November 2008 -- swore that in July 2009 it would take place. Never did. He kicked it back and kicked it back.
And what did Moqtada do? Not a damn thing.
Does Moqtada have a great deal of power? That hasn't been tested in a very long time. He had a popular resurgance in 2007 when Nouri ordered the attacks on Basra and the Sadr City of Baghdad. Attacking Moqtada did help build his popularity. However, not enough that Moqtada could fight back. As most will recall, Nouri won that battle, Moqtada caved -- just as he would later do on the referendum -- and went along.
"Caved and went along," many could argue (and some in the State Dept do), is Moqtada al-Sadr's m.o. Moqtada can get supporters to attend a speech or rally. What he can't do -- at least thus far -- is get them to risk their own lives while he remains in Iran. That's been demonstrated repeatedly. Moqtada is popular with a certain international set -- Amy Goodman for example (who notes him and credits him a protest -- that wasn't his protest "across Iraq" -- he is a very minor figure in the entire country, his base is a huge sub-set of Iraq). They love to turn the homophobic and sexist and fundamentalist thug into a cuddly bear. That's not reality. Nor has reality ever demonstrated that Moqtada has the power he's supposed to have.
Should Nouri stand firm against him (again) and should Moqtada attempt to issue orders for combat from Iran, Moqtada might grasp just how much sway he's lost by making Iran his home.
Maybe not, but that is a counter-take. And it is also speculation based on the facts that are known.
It's not know if the SOFA has already been extended; however, Saturday New Sabbah reported that a source in Parliament states that Nouri's Council fo Ministers has voted to extend the SOFA and that they signed the extension as well "during the last meeting of the Council of Ministers." Since US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told US troops Friday that the whole purpose of his visit was to raise the extension of the SOFA, if New Sabbah's source is being truthful, it would appear Gates will be leaving his post later this year feeling "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED." If the extension was signed, did Gates sign on behalf of the US or did US Ambassador James Jeffrey? (Then-US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker signed the original in 2008.) If the extension was done, this is not a "national security" issue and not only should the US Congress be informed but so should the American people.
Alsumaria TV reports Nouri al-Maliki is stating that Iraqi forces are capable of standing on their own. However, Robert Burns (AP) notes, "The U.S. wants to keep perhaps several thousand troops in Iraq, not to engage in combat but to guard against an unraveling of a still-fragile peace. This was made clear during Defense Secretary Robert Gates' visit Thursday and Friday in which he and the top U.S. commander in Iraq talked up the prospect of an extended U.S. stay." Al Mada reports former US envoy (during the Bush administration) Zalmay Khalilzad is visiting Iraq. You can probably guess why. Note that sending in the big guns does not require utilizing Chris Hill -- his reputation in Iraq helps no one. Ayas Hossam Acommok (Al Mada) notes that the US pressure also includes pressure on Nouri al-Maliki to name the security ministers.
New Sabah reports that Parliamentary Speaker Osama al-Nujafi is stating that the US is pressuring the government to extend the SOFA but al-Nujafi is deckarubg that will not happen. Of course, Parliament declared in 2006 that it would not happen -- but it did (with the UN mandate). And Parliament declared in 2007 that it would not happen -- but it did. In both cases, Nouri ignored their wishes and their will and just extended it all by himself. Mohammad Akef Jamal (Gulf News) feels the problems facing Iraq are rather obvious:
One of the current problems is the insistence of Al Dawa party (and the State of Law coalition) headed by Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki, to hold the reins of power, despite the fact that the results of the election were not in its favour. The State of Law coalition, through guile, was able to use loopholes in the constitution, and struck complicated and fragile deals, and added foreign pressure, to remain on top. These actions also saw a clear split between the Iraqi masses and the elite. There was criticism from individuals and also mass demonstrations against government policies.
This year, the demonstrations widened and took the form of angry strikes which flared through many Iraqi cities and governorates, turning into protests against unemployment, and lack of basic amenities, such as electricity.
However, the demonstrations, some of which turned bloody, did not cause the government much concern, as it was able to contain them through false promises.
New Sabah reports that Parliamentary Speaker Osama al-Nujafi is stating that the US is pressuring the government to extend the SOFA but al-Nujafi is deckarubg that will not happen. Of course, Parliament declared in 2006 that it would not happen -- but it did (with the UN mandate). And Parliament declared in 2007 that it would not happen -- but it did. In both cases, Nouri ignored their wishes and their will and just extended it all by himself. Mohammad Akef Jamal (Gulf News) feels the problems facing Iraq are rather obvious:
One of the current problems is the insistence of Al Dawa party (and the State of Law coalition) headed by Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki, to hold the reins of power, despite the fact that the results of the election were not in its favour. The State of Law coalition, through guile, was able to use loopholes in the constitution, and struck complicated and fragile deals, and added foreign pressure, to remain on top. These actions also saw a clear split between the Iraqi masses and the elite. There was criticism from individuals and also mass demonstrations against government policies.
This year, the demonstrations widened and took the form of angry strikes which flared through many Iraqi cities and governorates, turning into protests against unemployment, and lack of basic amenities, such as electricity.
However, the demonstrations, some of which turned bloody, did not cause the government much concern, as it was able to contain them through false promises.
RECOMMENDED: "Iraq snapshot"
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"THIS JUST IN! UNCLE ZIETUNI!"
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