Cedric's Big Mix: 2011-04-10

Friday, April 15, 2011

What it feels like for a girl

BULLY BOY PRESS & CEDRIC'S BIG MIX -- THE KOOL-AID TABLE

CELEBRITY IN CHIEF BARRY O CAN'T STOP WHINING. ALREADY BOO-HOOING OVER HIS LOSS OF PRIVACY -- DID NO ONE EXPLAIN TO CANDIDATE BARRY THAT THE POSITION HE WAS RUNNING FOR WAS HIGH-PROFILE? -- OUR LITTLE LOST STARLET IS NOW WHINING THAT THE WHITE HOUSE LACKS COOL ELECTRONIC GADGETS.

HE'S LEAVING AMERICANS WITH THE IMPRESSION THAT NO SOONER DOES HE SHOW UP FOR A FORMAL FUNCTION THAN HE'S INSISTING UPON SEEING HIS GOODY BAG.

IN OTHER NEWS, BARRY O GOT TALKING WHEN HE DIDN'T REALIZE THERE WAS A MIKE AND HE WAS PETTY AND BITCHY, JUST LIKE AN OBAMA.

FROM THE TCI WIRE:

Baghdad has seen protests every Friday since February 25th. Today in Baghdad, AGI reports, "hundreds" are protesting and calling for Nouri al-Maliki to resign. They are doing so in "Liberation Square" (Tahrir Square in downtown Baghdad) and have rejected the notion that they will be penned inside a stadium. Alsumaria TV adds:

"Demonstrators chanted "Leave Maliki, Leave" and "wind of change has arrived" in the middle of an intensive presence of the Iraqi security forces," the reporter added.
Baghdad Operations had declared on Wednesday that Al Shaab and Al Kashafa Stadiums in Al Rassafa and Al Zawra' Stadium in Karakh were appointed as substitute regions to hold licensed demonstrations instead of Al Tahrir and Al Ferdaws squares.
This demonstration is the first of its kind, since the beginning of demonstrations in February 25, as to calling for Prime Minister Al Maliki to step down. Demonstrations slogans have called to halt corruption and to implement reforms and change. These demonstrations were organized by university students and independent educated people thru social networking websites. It is to be noted that security forces had applied tight security measures and curfew to prevent demonstrators from reaching the gatherings. To that, Iraq police opened fire and many people were killed and injured.

As noted in Wednesday's snapshot, "AFP reports that Baghdad security forces have announced that protests in the capital from now on will only be allowed in one of three football stadiums. The excuse being offered is complaints from shop keepers about traffic issues but the reality is this is yet another effort to hide the protests away." Kitabat featured an essay Thursday rejecting the demand that protesters gather in stadiums, noting that they would instead keep the voices of the protest close to the ears of the Iraqi officials in the Green Zone and would refuse efforts to isolate the voice of the Iraqi people. Al Jazeera and the Christian Science Monitor's Jane Arraf observed:

Demonstrators gathering in #Baghdad's Tahrir square despite government ban - burning national registration cards in protest about 16 hours ago via web

Prashant Rao (AFP) quotes protester Mohammed Abdul Amir speaking to the crowd, "Why should we go to Al-Shaab stadium? Are we going to play a football match with the police? No! We will demonstrate here!" Human rights activist Sarah Abdallah tweets:

The demands of the Iraqi people are clear: free all political prisoners, down with #Maliki and end the criminal 8-year US #occupation. #Iraq about 1 hour ago via web

Tens of thousands marched through #Baghdad today for the "Friday of the Free," in defiance of the #Maliki regime's ban on protests. #Iraq about 1 hour ago via web

At Al Jazeera's live blog of MidEast protests today, Jane Arraf reported that some activists "burned their Iraqi identiy cards in protest against the government. Military and police units deployed at the square did not prevent the gathering".

On the subject of protests we're again left with the crazed rantngs of Raed Jarrar (see Sunday's "And the war drags on . . ." for a dissection of his previous crazy). How fitting that his latest revisionary history shows up at Iran's state controlled Press TV -- what would propaganda be without a propaganda mill? Making like Moqtada al-Sadr's girlfriend -- the Eva to Moqtada's Adolph, Raed's again writing about Saturday's protests. If you're wondering, no, he's not written of any of the other over 30 big protests which have taken place across Iraq in the last three months. But his Mookie Moqtada didn't have a hand in those and Raed's all about spreading the love for Mookie: "the prominent nationalist Shia cleric" -- does anyone else see the hilarity in referring to chicken Moqtada hiding in another country (Iran) as a "nationalist"? But, hey, the hilarity is right there the minute you apply "nationalist" to Moqtada. He's attempting to make Iraq a satellite of Iran, don't mistake that for nationalism unless you're grossly uneducated.

All of the protests that came before are reduced by Raed to a one and a half sentences: "Iraqis had already been demonstrating in the streets of Baghdad and other major Iraqi cities for a week as of this writing. So far most of the protests have focused on better services". He. Just. Can't. Stop. Lying. Protests have been going on in Iraq since February, not for a week. There's been a sit-in that's gone on non-stop for weeks, day after day. Better services? No. What an insulting thing to say, insulting and uninformed.

Iraqi protests this year kicked off in February and kicked off outside of Baghdad. It's amazing because people died in these protests but they're being stripped from the record by Moqtada's Fan Club. As January wound down, Ned Parker. reported on the secret prisons for the Los Angeles Times and Human Rights Watch issued their report on it. Parker's January report on the secret prisons and how they were run by Nouri's security forces, the Baghdad Brigade followed up on his earlier report on how the Brigade was behind the prison that he and the paper exposed in April 2010. All the whilte Nouri insisted that there were no secret prisons in Iraq. Such as February 6th when Mohammed Tawfeeq (CNN) reported, "The Iraqi government on Sunday denied a human rights organization's allegation that it has a secret detention center in Baghdad, run by Prime Minister Nur al-Maliki's security forces." The report then quoted Nouri's spokesperson Ali al-Moussawi stating, "We don't know how such a respectable organization like Human Rights Watch is able to report such lies." Camp Honor is a prison that's under Nouri's control, staffed by people working for him. Amnesty International would also call the use of secret prisons out while Nouri continued to deny them.

But while many in the press would play dumb, the Iraqi people knew better. They knew their loved ones were gone, disappeared into Iraq's legal system. That is what began the protests in Iraq: the prisons. It's what fueled them throughout. And that's not "going on for a week as of this writing." From the Feb. 10th snapshot:

Alsumaria TV reports protests took place in Babel Province today with one protest calling for the release of prisoners and another calling out the continued lack of public services. Dar Addustour reports the the Council of the Bar Association issued a call for a Baghdad demonstration calling for corruption to be prosecuted, for the Constitution to be followed and sufficient electricity in all the schools. Nafia Abdul-Jabbar (AFP) reports that approximately 500 people (mainly attorneys "but also including some tribal sheikhs") marched and that they also decried the secret prisons. They carried banners which read "Lawyers call for the government to abide by the law and provide jobs for the people" and "The government must provide jobs and fight the corrupt." Bushra Juhi (AP) counts 3,000 demonstrating and calls it "one of the biggest anti-government demonstrations in Iraq" this year. Juhi also notes that attorneys staged smaller protests in Mosul and Basra today. Al Rafidayn reports that five provinces saw protests yesterday as the people demanded reliable public services and an end to government corruption. Noting the Babylon Province protest, the paper quotes Amer Jabk (Federation of Industrialists in Babylon president) stating that the provincial government has not provided any of the services the province needs, that basic services have deteriorated and that heavy rains have not only seen streets closed but entire neighborhoods sinking. Hayder Najm (niqash) observes protests have taken place across Iraq, "The protesters' grievances have been many and varied: the quality and level of basic services, government restrictions on civil liberties and freedom of expression, violations against civil servants, and the rampant financial and administrative corruption within state institutions. [. . .] Eight years after the US invasion of Iraq, the electricity supply in most areas of the country still does not exceed two hours a day, and the country still suffers from poor infrastructure, a weak transport network, and an acute crisis of drinking water and sanitation."

An AP report on the protests above included:

"This is in solidarity with the Iraqi people," said Kadhim Zubaidi, spokesman for Iraq's lawyers' union in Baghdad. "We want the government to sack the corrupt judges."

Noting recent reports by human rights groups revealing secret prisons in Iraq, Zubaidi added: "We also demand that the interior and defence ministries allow us to enter the secret prisons … We want to get information about these prisons."

And that's not when the protests started. We can go further back than that. But Raed Jarrar -- as usual -- does not know what he's writing about or is intentionally attempting to deceive. You cannot distort events to suit your own political aims and be considered credible. It just makes you a liar. Raed wants to get to the SOFA possibly being extended and does as he wraps up. To his credit, he shows a stronger understanding of the SOFA at the end of his column than he has prior. He doesn't want the SOFA extended. I don't either. But I'm not going to lie to make my point. Raed states that if the SOFA is extended "without approval by Iraq's legislators" [which appears to mean he's acknowledging at last that Nouri has twice extending the occupation without the permission of the Parliament -- he did so in 2006 and in 2007] "it would be the last straw that would destroy the Iraqi government's legitmacy and end the credibility of the country's political and electoral systems. It would push many Iraqis who have joined the government to boycott the political process and resort again to violence."

What would is Raed living in? The last elections concluded March 7, 2010 (early voting started the Thursday before Sunday the 7th). Sunnis turned out in larger numbers and did so because they'd skipped the 2005 national elections in large numbers and felt short changed (to put it mildly) in the years that followed. Were it not for the increased Sunni turnout, the commnetary would have been on how low the turnout was. That's because Shi'ites stayed home in large numbers. You're seeing disenchantment in the turnout already. If the puppet government survived Nouri extending the SOFA in 2006 (to cover the year 2007) and in 2007 (to cover the year 2008), you're going to have to offer some sort of support for your claim that his doing so again will destroy Iraq. In 2008, he did take the matter (then the SOFA, not the UN mandate) to the Parliament. And, try to remember, he promised that the people would get to weigh in. They'd get a referendum on the SOFA. And they could reject it!!!! They could say no!!! They could end the war!!! (They actually couldn't. Had they said "no" in July 2009, per the SOFA, the Iraq War would have continued until the end of 2010 -- read the SOFA.) But that July referendum? Never held. And did the puppet government fall apart?

No, it didn't. Repeatedly the occupation's been extended, repeatedly Iraqis have been lied to. There is outrage. There has always been outrage. The puppet government has not fallen. Which isn't to say it wouldn't. It is to say that if Raed wants to assert a claim that it likely will, he's going to have to offer some supporting evidence for his conclusion because, at present, the facts argue otherwise. What has kept the puppet government in control has been the US military on the ground. My guess has always been that it's very likely the puppet government falls when the US finally leaves. If there's a case to be made for it falling while US forces are on the ground in Iraq, Raed needs to make it. But his wet dreams about Moqtada aren't doing it. Nouri attacked Moqtada's forces in Basra and Baghdad. And Moqtada's forces melted away. Many of them ran at the start of the attacks. Though it drove up Moqtada's popularity, it didn't drive up his authority. Again, if you're going to offer predictions, try to provide supporting evidence for them as opposed to distorting events and reality to fit your own personal desires.

Reality doesn't need 'improving.' You can't offer an honest take if you distort. And the claim that people might lose faith in the government begs the question of who still has faith in Nouri? The Organisation of Women's Freedom in Iraq note:

These days, Iraqi authorities feel free to carry out arbitrary arrests, physical assault and torture of Iraqi citizens who participate in peaceful demonstrations. In fact, they have begun to recruit and utilize of the expertise of the masterminds who were part of the horrific Baathist regime of Saddam. In doing so, they announce the end of any commitment to human rights stipulated in the Constitution they have offered to the Iraqi people as a social contract.
Yesterday, on April 13th at 1:45 pm, armed military\secret-intelligence forces arrived in three vehicles, stormed the offices of the Federation of Workers Councils and Unions in Iraq (FWCUI) and also the Organization of Women's Freedom in Iraq (OWFI), for the second time in one month. They arrested OWFI affiliate youth activist Firas Ali, one of the leaders of February 25 Group on Facebook and in Baghdad's Tahrir square. Those who raided the building intimidated all the youth present, calling them terrorists, though they were the organizing team of a group of demonstrators within Baghdad's weekly protests who have clearly shown their peaceful intentions, week after week. The armed forces immediately blindfolded Firas Ali, handcuffed him, and took him away, where demonstrators are detained and tortured with the same feared methods used under Saddam's reign. The armed forces had no court order for the arrest of Firas Ali, or for breaking into the offices.
Alaa Nabil, another youth leader of February 25 Group, was arrested in much the same manner on April 8th, and he remains in custody. It is thought that he is jailed in one of the prisons close to the Baghdad International Airport, along with 17 other demonstrators from Tahrir, but it is impossible to be sure.
The Maliki government thinks it can silence the youth, determined to end what have become the signature characteristics of its rule - oppression and corruption. All the Saddam-style violations, group arrests, and torture will not deter the youth from demanding an end to corruption and to start to an era of equality and freedom, expected in any civilized society.
The OWFI demands the immediate release of Firas Ali and Alaa Nabil. OWFI reserves the right to take to court all those who have given orders for arbitrary arrest, and those who physically assaulted the youth activists. The OWFI also warns those who consider the further torture of freedom lovers such as Firas Ali and Alaa Nabil… They will be pursued, brought to trial for their crimes against humanity, and thrown in the same prisons they now misuse.
We warn the Maliki government to stop denying the human rights of the demonstrators, and we demand an immediate official response, stating any legitimate charges against our activists, their place of detention, and physical condition. We also hold them directly responsible for any and all physical abuse or torture which our activists have been subjected to.
Down with the Baathist oppression
Down with the oppressive and corrupt despots
No more torture of youth activists… Enough is enough!
Yanar Mohammed
OWFI president

That's what Iraqis face to protest. In Defense of Marxism posts an alert from Iraqi union organizer Akram Nadir:

Firas Ali, an Iraqi political activist, was detained at the office of the Federation of Workers' Councils and Unions in Iraq, Baghdad, at about 2pm on 13 April. A protester, Haidar Shihab Ahmad Abdel Latif, is believed to have been detained on 1 April on Tahrir Square, Baghdad. Alaa Nabil, another youth leader of the February 25 Group, was also arrested on April 8, and remains in custody. It is feared that they and other detained activists are at high risk of torture.

Political activist Firas 'Ali, 30 years old, is reported to have been detained by members of the armed forces early in the afternoon of 13 April, at the Baghdad office of the Federation of Workers' Councils and Unions in Iraq. An eyewitness told Amnesty International: "Two men in plain clothes and three soldiers asked about Firas 'Ali. They did not show an arrest warrant. Later I could see Firas 'Ali blindfolded and handcuffed being forced by soldiers into a vehicle and taken away." Friends of Firas Ali have not been able to contact him via his mobile phone since his detention and his whereabouts remain unknown. Amnesty International fears that Firas 'Ali is at high risk of torture.

Haidar Shihab Ahmad Abdel Latif, a 24 year old casual worker, attended protests at Tahrir Square on 1 April for the first time. He was with two friends who briefly left him at about 11.30, but when they returned about 10 minutes later he was no longer there. There were no witnesses to his detention. However, Iraqi activists have told Amnesty International that on previous occasions protesters have been "discretely" led away from the protests and detained. A member of his family who is a political activist told Amnesty International he fears that Haidar Shihab Ahmad Abdel Latif was taken instead of him. His family has searched at hospitals and made inquiries with the authorities but has still no information of his whereabouts.

Alaa Nabil, another youth leader of the February 25 Group, was also arrested on April 8, and he remains in custody. It is believed he is being kept j in one of the prisons close to the Baghdad International Airport, together with 17 other demonstrators from Tahrir, but it is impossible to be sure.

PLEASE WRITE IMMEDIATELY in English or Arabic. We provide a Model Letter below to be sent to the following email addresses:

info@pmo.iq and admin@cabinet.iq

shakawa@humanrights.gov.iq and info@humanrights.gov.iq

Add also the address of your nearest Iraqi embassy that can be found at the following link:
http://embassy.goabroad.com/embassies-of/Iraq (Please send appeals before 26 May 2011 to the Iraqi embassy in your country)

Please send copies also to: akram_nadir_1999@yahoo.com and editor@marxist.com so that we can keep those campaigning for their release informed.

The spoiled child

BULLY BOY PRESS & CEDRIC'S BIG MIX -- THE KOOL-AID TABLE

LIKE A SPOILED CHILD WHO FOREVER DISAPPOINTS, CELEBRITY IN CHIEF BARRY O IS SOMEONE WITH NO EXPECTATIONS. HE BEGAN FUND RAISING FOR 2012 AND NOT ONE PERSON HAS YET TO SUGGEST A CAMPAIGN TO PRESSURE HIM INTO TAKING PUBLIC FINANCING.

FROM THE TCI WIRE:

At the top of the Facebook page for the Great Iraqi Revolution, this report appears, "Inspite of the fact that I am really feeling ill and awful I really felt that I have to come in for a mom and update you with some wonderful news despite the fact that there is so much black - the sit-ins in Mosul and the vigils have been added to - The brave and outspoken Shaikh Salim Al Thabbab from Nassiriya, Shaikh of Rabee'a and ...Shayban came to Mosul and joined the sit in with a large party - who were also joined by a large contingent of women fro Nassiriya to keep the women of Mosul company and they were all joined by Shyoukh from Basra, Diyala, Salah Eldeen and Kut and there are more to come - also joined by a large group of poets from Baghdad - Power to the People - I believe the tidal wave has really started gathering force - Thank you Uday Al Zaidi who also gave a wonderful slap to the Islamic Politicians who visited him telling him that he had no right to want the Occupation out! That what are they to do about Iran! The people of Mosul told them that they had no place at this gathering and they had to leave. Power to the Iraqi People. Watch this page and space. I promise, as soon as I get better I will keep you updated with everything that has been happening since Saturday - but before I stop, it was a carnival scene - flags flying, poetry reading, chanting and dancing - I will post videos - I have been recording everything - Uday, a few days ago told me that they would have to kill him and his group before they stop the sitins - now I thin k it will be impossible to stop anything - Fallujah also had a very large demo today anti occupation and ruling gang. Pray for Iraq and for us everybody - support us." Today Tim Arango (New York Times) provides a look at Iraq's young protesters:

A common sentiment from nearly three dozen interviews with young Iraqis around the country recently is a persistent disenchantment with both their political leaders and the way democracy has played out here. "The youth is the excluded class in the Iraqi community," said Swash Ahmed, a 19-year-old law student in Kirkuk. "So they've started to unify through Facebook or the Internet or through demonstrations and evenings in cafes, symposiums and in universities. But they don't have power."

As noted in yesterday's snapshot, "AFP reports that Baghdad security forces have announced that protests in the capital from now on will only be allowed in one of three football stadiums. The excuse being offered is complaints from shop keepers about traffic issues but the reality is this is yet another effort to hide the protests away." The latest assault on democracy from Nouri al-Maliki is getting some attention (here and here, for example). Another US-installed despot is conducting a power-grab and herding people into stadium's in the nation's capital. Does it end like the National Stadium in Santiago back in 1973? Or are we all still pretending that Nouri's not a despot?

Last week, Nouri al-Maliki, thug of the occupation, ordered attacks on Camp Ashraf. The United Nations now has observers in the camp. Louis Charbonneau and Bill Trott (Reuters) report the UN has confirmed that 34 people were killed and the reporters note, "The fatality count was the same number of deaths Ashraf residents had reported." They note that the death toll had been reduced to three in claims made by Nouri's officials. Yesterday Lara Jakes (AP) reported that at least 17 injured residents of Camp Ashraf were "forcibly removed from their hospital beds" by Iraqi forces and left/dumped at Camp Ashraf. Jakes explained, "Three women were among the patients, many of whom were bandaged, according to the doctor and an ambulance driver who spoke on condition of anonymity because that were not authorized to speak to the media." Following the US invasion, the US made these MEK residents of Camp Ashraf -- Iranian refuees who had been in Iraq for decades -- surrender weapons and also put them under US protection. They also extracted a 'promise' from Nouri that he would not move against them. July 28, 2009 the world saw what Nouri's word was actually worth. Since that Nouri-ordered assault in which at least 11 residents died, he's continued to bully the residents. Iran's Fars News Agency reported last week that the Iraqi military denied allegations that it entered the camp and assaulted residents. Specifically, Camp Ashraf residents state, "The forces of Iraq's Fifth Division invaded Camp Ashraf with columns of armored vehicles, occupying areas inside the camp, since midnight on Saturday." Friday saw another attack which the Iraqi government again denied -- this is the attack that the UN has now confirmed resulted in 34 deaths. AFP reports, "European parliamentarians on Thursday urged the United States and the United Nations to help protect residents of a camp housing Iranian dissidents in Iraq, which witnessed a deadly assault by government forces. A statement signed by more than 100 members of the parliamentary assembly of the Council of Europe also called on the European Union to demand 'the immediate withdrawal of Iraqi forces from Camp Ashraf'."

The assault has been a big issue outside of the US media. You've had two members of England's upper house of Parliament (House of Lords) accuse the US of giving the okay for the Friday assault. Earlier this week, David Waddington (England's House of Lords) wrote at the Independent:

Last week Iraqi forces entered a camp in Iraq housing members of the Iranian opposition group, the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI). Thirty three residents were killed and over 300 wounded. Were the US authorities, as it has been suggested, told of the intended attack by the Iraqi Government? If they were, then surely members of the US government were complicit in a crime against humanity. And of course it shows that the US administration is continuing to appease the regime in Tehran whose influence over the Iraq government grows and grows.

The raid which took place at 5am on Friday 8 April, involved 2,500 severely armed Iraqi forces entering the Camp in armoured vehicles and Humvees, with video footage filmed by the residents clearly showing Iraqi forces running over unarmed residents and firing indiscriminately at them. Under any parameter of international law such a massacre of unarmed civilians is a war crime and a crime against humanity.

Another David, David Alton who is also a member of England's House of Lords, issued his thoughts in the form of a column for The Hill calling on the US to protect Camp Ashraf and noting a similarity between Friday's attack and the July 28, 2009 attack: Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was on the ground in Iraq when both took place. Alton writes, "In fact the attacks both happened only hours after a meeting between Nuri al-Maliki and Secretary Gates. Although Secretary Gates may not have had any knowledge of what was in the making by al-Maliki, this can hardly be a coincidence. There are not so many options: either Nuri al-Maliki has received some kind of green light from the Secretary Gates or he wanted to demonstrate that he carries some sort of pre-arrangement with the US; or he is contemptuous of U.S. opinion." AFP notes that the residents are "protected under the Geneva Convetions" and explains, "A left-wing Islamic movement, the PMOI was founded in 1965 in opposition to the Shah of Iran and has subsequently fought to oust the clerical regime that took power in Tehran after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution."

Kate Allen (Guardian) sees the treatment of the Camp Ashraf residents as a way of measuring the level of human rights progress in Iraq:

Meanwhile, the Iraqi authorities are barely paying lip-service to their obligation to properly investigate these deeply troubling events. Nouri al-Maliki's government has said it will investigate last week's violence, but it said that in 2009 as well. In common with scores of other "investigations" in the country, nothing more has been heard of it.
And neither is Iraq coming under much international pressure over Camp Ashraf. The UK's foreign office minister Alistair Burt said he was "disturbed" by the loss of life and supported a UN monitoring mission to the camp, but generally there's been relatively little reaction. A letter in the Guardian bemoaned the "blanket of silence" surrounding it.
Drowned out by Libya, Syria and Ivory Coast, violence at Camp Ashraf is at risk of being all but ignored. Amnesty is calling for an independent investigation into Friday's blood-letting as well as assurances that no one at Ashraf is going to be forced out of Iraq if their lives are put in danger.
Camp Ashraf doesn't come close to fitting into the "Arab Spring" narrative (though meanwhile Iraq's own protests have in fact been well-attended, ruthlessly put down and almost totally unreported). But the world should start paying attention to this forgotten story. How Iraq treats the residents of Camp Ashraf will provide an important window into how far Iraq has come in respecting human rights.

RECOMMENDED: "Iraq snapshot"
"Uninformed or misinformed?"
"Camp Ashraf"
"Barry and Dick"
"Well good for Diane"
"Caldicott responds"
"a real education war"
"Lila Garrett's blanket of hatred"
"The truth"
"Joe Biden"
"Movies"
"The Guardian and belief"
"Barry's groovy speech"
"THIS JUST IN! SNOOZING!"
"He puts the world to sleep with his yammering"

Thursday, April 14, 2011

He puts the world to sleep with his yammering

BULLY BOY PRESS & CEDRIC'S BIG MIX -- THE KOOL-AID TABLE

CELEBRITY IN CHIEF BARRY O USED TO BE SEEN AS A GREAT SPEAKER.

THOSE OVERRATED DAYS ARE GONE. BUT THERE'S NO DENYING HE HAS A FUTURE CAREER AS A SLEEPING AID.

FROM THE TCI WIRE:

US President Barack Obama was speechifying (rhymes with lying) this afternoon. David Swanson (War Is A Crime) offers this analysis:

Obama's speech on the deficit on Wednesday was a flop. He proposed to end no wars, make no serious cuts to the military, REDUCE corporate taxes, tax no estates or investments, raise no taxes on any billionaires, and give an unelected commission the power to slash Medicare.

Obama began by blaming tax cuts, wars, and healthcare:

"[A]fter Democrats and Republicans committed to fiscal discipline during the 1990s, we lost our way in the decade that followed. We increased spending dramatically for two wars and an expensive prescription drug program -- but we didn't pay for any of this new spending. Instead, we made the problem worse with trillions of dollars in unpaid-for tax cuts -- tax cuts that went to every millionaire and billionaire in the country; tax cuts that will force us to borrow an average of $500 billion every year over the next decade. To give you an idea of how much damage this caused to our national checkbook, consider this: in the last decade, if we had simply found a way to pay for the tax cuts and the prescription drug benefit, our deficit would currently be at low historical levels in the coming years."

Notice that the possibility of ending wars got dropped from that last sentence.

"Look to Iraq," declared Barack Obama in his January 2011 State of the Union address, "where nearly 100,000 of our brave men and women have left with their heads held high. American combat patrols have ended, violence is down and a new government has been formed."

Actually, Barack, let's look to the US State Dept which issued a warning yesterday that began, "The Department of State warns U.S. citizens of the risks inherent in travel to Iraq and recommends against all but essential travel to the country given the dangerous security situation. Civilian air and road travel within Iraq remains dangerous. This Travel Warning replaces the Travel Warning dated November 5, 2010, to update information and to remind U.S. citizens of ongoing security concerns for U.S. citizens in Iraq, including kidnapping and terrorist violence." And at a time when Europe continues forced returns, note that the alert insists "no region should be considered safe from dangerous conditions"

And the war drags on. Jane Arraf (Christian Science Monitor) speaks with US military brass in Iraq and observes "a growing concern by American officials that the Iraqi governmetn is closing the door on a new aggreement for US troops in Iraq past the end of this year. The comments to a small group of reporters also signaled a concern that a militarily weak Iraq could be another destabilizing factor in what has become a volatile region." Brendan McGarry (Bloomberg News) reports from the Penatgon today and quotes Army Chief of Staff Gen Martin Dempsey stating, "It would certainly be in our interest to see Iraq remain on its current path and becom even more stable. As a member of the national security team, that would be my advice." US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates spent several days in Iraq last week pressing the case for the US military staying on the ground in Iraq past December 31, 2011. In what appears to be an attempt at arm twising by the US White House, Anwar Faruqi (AFP) quotes an unnamed US miliary official stating, "If we left -- and this is the health warning we would give to anybody -- be careful about assuming that we will come running back to put out the fire if we don't have an agreement. Rudaw adds:

Chief of Staff of Kurdistan's president said today that the extension of the presence of American troops in Iraq is directly linked to the federal government of Iraq and the agreement between Baghdad and Washington.

This statement by the President's Chief of Staff Fuad Hussein was in reference to the question of American troops being stationed in the Kurdistan Region after the US withdrawal.

"American troops are here only based on the agreement between Iraq and the United States and this agreement will expire by the end of this year." said Fuad Hussein. "If Iraq wants these troops to stay longer, it will have to sign a new agreement."

Fuad Hussein said that only the Iraqi state can sign international agreements and that the Kurdistan Region can do nothing in this regard.

Jane Arraf explains, "If there is no new status of forces agreement, the United States could still negotiate bilateral pacts for specific training and assistance missions but those, too, would be expected to come under the scrutiny of Iraqi cabinet."

The government of Iraq remains frozen. Nouri al-Maliki still has yet to fill the security ministries. His 100 day clock (to show real reform) is ticking away and the political blocs appear to be unraveling. Dar Addustour reports that Ayad Allawi, Adel Abdul Mahdi and Ahmed Chalabi met yesterday to firm up plans for the shadow government. Ayas Hossam Acommok (Al Mada) adds that a source close to the planning notes this was the first meeting between the three leaders to address the shadow government and how to exercise oversight of the Parliament. The article also notes that Nouri al-Maliki, who had previously made noises about forming a 'majority government' (kicking out the winners) is now publicly stating he's dropped the plan (which, knowing Nouri's record, doesn't mean he actually has dropped it)and that he now insists a wide partnership of all the parties is needed. Al Rafidayn notes that Parliament resumed sessions yesterday (after yet another week long break) and that Hisham Darraji is seen as the favorite among the nominees for Minister of Defense. David Ali (Al Mada) observes that Iraq is still without a Minister of Defense or Minister of Interior and that Nouri is left attempting to assure Iraqis that this isn't a problem and that the matter is being resolved. Ali notes that some political observers are not so sure that Nouri will be able to reassure the Iraqi people and an opinion that popular favorite Hashim Darraji is being penalized (by Nouri) due to his congratulations to Ayad Allawi on Iraqiya's win in the elections. (Nouri was State Of Law which came in second in the national eelections.) Aswat al-Iraq reports that the political process was the topic of a discussion today between KRG President Massoud Barzani and Speaker of Parliament Osama al-Nujiefi. While Nouri's spokesperson released a statement on a Tuesday meet-up, "The meeting, attended by the Chairman of Baghdad's Provincial Council, Kamel al-Zaidy, Baghdad Governor Salah Abdul-Razzaq, the Chariman of the Iraqi Journalists Syndicate, Moaya al-Lamy and a large number of journalists, as weel as the Chairman of the Free Youth Gathering, Jalal al-Shahmany, discussed the demands of Baghdad citizens and means to present necessary services for them." The statement was released shortly before another development took place. AFP reports that Baghdad security forces have announced that protests in the capital from now on will only be allowed in one of three football stadiums. The excuse being offered is complaints from shop keepers about traffic issues but the reality is this is yet another effort to hide the protests away. Academics are among those participating in the protests. They are also among those again targeted. UPI reports that the Iraqi class that returned or that managed to hang on during the so-called "brain drain" is once again finding itself targeted by unknown assailants. This was common from 2004 through 2008 but said to have tapered off with 'improved security'.

As the security posts have gone unfilled, Nouri has handled them by himself as a 'temporary' Minister. Some have seen this as an effort to consolidate the powers of the post into the post of prime minister. Others see it as further proof that Nouri lacks the ability to lead and pull the country together. What most can agree on is that while the three posts have remained vacant, the violence has increased in Iraq.

Press TV reports a southern Iraq US military base was attacked with mortars today and that this was "the third such attack on US forces in Iraq over the past week. On Sunday, three rockets targeted a US camp in Diwaniyah, a city south of the capital Baghdad." One of the keys to the reduction in violence in Iraq -- according to Congressional testimony provided repeatedly by Gen David Petraeus and then-US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker in April 2008 -- was the Sahwa. These were largely Sunni fighters (but, according to Petraeus, they weren't all Sunni) who were paid by the US government not to attack military equipment or soldiers (that was the order Petraues used repeatedly when testifying before Congress). Dropping back to the April 8, 2008 snapshot when the two appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee:

In his opening remarks, Petraues explained of the "Awakening" Council (aka "Sons of Iraq," et al) that it was a good thing "there are now over 91,000 Sons of Iraq -- Shia as well as Sunni -- under contract to help Coalition and Iraqi Forces protect their neighborhoods and secure infrastructure and roads. These volunteers have contributed significantly in various areas, and the savings in vehicles not lost because of reduced violence -- not to mention the priceless lives saved -- have far outweighed the cost of their monthly contracts."

In that same hearing, Crocker declared, "What has been achieved is substantial, but it is also reversible." The reverse may have taken place as Sahwa ("Awakening," "Sons Of Iraq") were taken off the US payroll with the expectation that Nouri would pick up the costs. When, a year after the April 2008 hearing, Nouri finally did, he frequently didn't pay the Sahwa. They were also frequently targeted by his forces (on his orders). Many have spoken to the press in the last two years explaining how it's been made clear that Sahwa are not wanted by the government out of Baghdad. Today Aswat al-Iraq reports four Sahwa were arrested and one ("a young man") put a knoose aroun dhis neck and hanged himself. That took place in Kirkuk which was also the site for a car bombing today which claimed 1 life and left sixteen people injured and a Baquba roadside bombing wounded the "Director of the al-Saadiya district and three of his companions." Reuters notes a Kirkuk roadside bombing injured Lt Col Najat Hassan, a Baghdad bombing left three people injured and, dropping back to last night, a Ramadi attack resulted in 1 shop keeper being murdered.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

No pictures please, unless it's a cover shoot

BULLY BOY PRESS & CEDRIC'S BIG MIX -- THE KOOL-AID TABLE

CELEBRITY IN CHIEF BARRY O CAN'T STOP WHINING.

JUST THE OTHER DAY HE WAS WHINING, TYPICAL STARLET, ABOUT HIS 'LOSS OF PRIVACY.' NOW, LIKE MANY A PERSON WANTING GREATER PRIVACY, HE ANNOUNCES HE'LL BE ON OPRAH MAY 2ND.

AMERICA HAS TIRED OF THE CELEBRITY IN CHIEF AND THE LATEST POLLING DEMONSTRATES THAT OBAMACARE STILL ISN'T POPULAR -- IN FACT, IT'S AT AN ALL TIME LOW. REMEMBER WHEN BARRY O AND OTHERS INSISTED THAT IF YOU JUST WAITED UNTIL AFTER IT PASSED, IT WOULD BE POPULAR?

IN OTHER NEWS, THE STARLET'S HALF-SISTER, TYPICAL WHITE PERSON THAT SHE IS, HAS DECIDED TO TAKE TO THE AIRWAVES. HAVING CALLED HER MOTHER EVERYTHING BUT A WHORE, WE DON'T DOUBT THAT SHE'S BARRY O'S SISTER. WE WOULD JUST REMIND HER THAT, ON THE MAINLAND, THE CAMPAIGN HID HER AWAY AND DID SO FOR GOOD REASON. AMONG THEM, SHE BLURS THE LINE FOR BARACK'S BASE. BUT THEN AGAIN, IT'S BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE A FIRST FAMILY HAD ANYONE AS TRASHY AS BILLY CARTER SO, MAYA SOETERO, COME ON DOWN! AND TELL US AGAIN HOW HAVING A WHITE MOTHER MADE YOU LOUD AND ALL THE OTHER INSULTING THINGS YOU TO LOVE TO SAY ABOUT YOUR DEAD MOTHER. MAYA'S NOT JUST TRASH, SHE'S JERRY SPRINGER TRASH!

FROM THE TCI WIRE:

Yesterday the Defense Department issued the following, "The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation New Dawn. Sgt. Vorasack T. Xaysana, 30, of Westminster, Colo., died April 10 in Kirkuk, Iraq, of injuries sustained April 9 in a non-combat related incident. He was assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 12th Cavalry Regiment, 4th Brigade Combat Team, Fort Hood, Texas. For more information, the media may contact the Fort Hood public affairs at 254-287-9993 or 254-287-0106." He is the sixth US soldier to die in Iraq this month.

And for what? What is being accomplished? The Iraqi 'govermnet' remains in a state of paralysis. 2007 benchmarks were never, ever reached. Yet Robert Burns (AP) observes, "The U.S. wants to keep perhaps several thousand troops in Iraq, not to engage in combat but to guard against an unraveling of a still-fragile peace. This was made clear during Defense Secretary Robert Gates' visit Thursday and Friday in which he talked up the prospect of an extended U.S. stay." And should the SOFA not be extended? Tim Arango (New York Times) notes, "The State Department has worked up plans to double its size here in preparation for the scheduled military withdrawal. It intends to expand from about 8,000 civilians to more than 16,000 many of them private contractors, but Congress has not yet approved the money to pay for it." Why stay?

What justifies prolonging the illegal war? The wonderful human rights situation in Iraq? That little myth is (yet again) blown out of the water. Today Amnesty International issued the report [PDF format warning] "DAYS OF RAGE: PROTESTS AND REPRESSION IN IRAQ" which opens with the threat made to activist Fatima Ahmed February 25th to stop her from participating in that day's actions, "If you don't stop your political opposition activities we will kidnap you, rape you and videotape the rape." In February many Iraqi cities continued their 2010 protests. February 25th, the protests reached Baghdad. Every Friday since, protests have taken place in Baghdad (and across the country -- and they've been held on days other than Friday as well). The response from Nouri's government was to attack protesters, arrest them, assault journalists, impeded access to protest sites and more.

The report rightly notes that Iraqis were protesting in 2010 and that at least one person died in a June 19, 2010 protest in Basra "when police fired on astone-throwing demonstrators." This led to the resignation of the Minister of Electricity and, from the Minister of the Interior, "new regulations that make it extremely difficult to obtain official authorization to hold protest meetings or demonstrations." Though the report doesn't mention it, the resignation also came with the promise that the electricity issue would be addressed. It wasn't. (The Minister of Oil was also made the Minister of Electricity -- by Nouri. No, the Constitution does not allow Nouri to make such a move unilaterally.) The reports note that protests in 2011 built up to February 25th which was dubbed "The Day of Rage." From the report:

The various forces under the control of the authorities and political parties, including security guards, armed forces and security forces, responded from the start with excessive force, killing and injuring protesters, and with frequent arrests. The first fatalities were on 16 February in the eastern city of Kut in Wasit province, and on 17 February in Sulaimaniya in the Kurdistan region. Activists told Amnesty International that the ferocity of the crackdown following the "Days of Rage" led to a decline in the number of protests in subsequent weeks, although protests have continued.

On several occasions, however, protestors have used violence -- mainly by throwing stones at members of the security forces or public buildings, or on rare occasions by setting fire to public buildings. As a result, members of the security forces have been injured. On most such occasions, it appears that demonstrators only resorted to violence after security forces had used force against them, including sound bombs and live ammunition.

[. . .]

Amnesty International also found disturbing evidence of targeted attacks on political activists, torture and other ill-treatment of people arrested in connection with the protests, and attacks or threats against journalists, media outlets, government critics, academics and students.

Up to now, the Iraqi authorities in both Baghdad and Kurdistan region have sought to crack down on peaceful protestors. This must change. They should be cracking down on the use of excessive force and torture by their own largely unaccountable security forces, not on the right of people to peacefully protest. The Iraqi authorities should be upholding the rights to freedom of expression and peacefully assembly, including the right to protest, not trying to suppress them. It is high time to do so.

The Iraqi authorities have failed to respect their constitutional and international obligations to uphold the rights to freedom of assembly and expression.

By refusing to do so the authorities in Iraq violated the Constitution's Article 38 as well as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights' Article 21. The report notes protesters who were killed such as Mu'ataz Muwafaq Waissi and Salim Farooq. It also includes testimony from those who were tortured like activist Oday Alzaidy who was picked up by the army , transferred to another vehicle, "beaten and blindfolded," taken to another location where he was held for five days and tortured:

They came to me every day and they attacked me with beatings and gave me electric shocks. They told me to confess that I was sent by the Ba'ath party [the party led by former President Saddam Hussain, executed in December 2006]. When I denied this, they beat me even harder with batons and they shocked me with electric prods.

In the Kurdistan Region Government, the report explains "at least six people have died as a result of excessive force b the security forces during protests". As elsewhere in Iraq, KRG protesters have decried government services, corruption, the vast unemployment the lack of "respect for human rights and freedoms." The daily sit-ins in Sulaimaniay are noted (ongoing since February 17th). This is where security forces shot Rezhwan Ali in the head and the 15-year-old died. It's where teenager Surkew Zahid and 28-year-old Sherzad Taha died forllowing attacks by security forces.It's where Omed Jalal was shot dead by security forces (Jalal was not a protester, the 25-year-old was merely walking past the protest). Those are only some of the deaths which have taken place in the KRG protests. The capital has been largely free of protests and that's due to the government's clamp down on protests in Erbil by refusing to allow them access to the city's square -- even when denying access has meant the security forces violently responding to protesters. Torture of protesters has also taken place in the KRG. Sharwan Azad Faqi 'Abdallah shares:

At around 2.30pm as I had just finished a phone conversation with a friend, three men confronted me and asked me to give them the mobile. Other men arrived within seconds, including from behind, and then I received several punches on the head and different parts of the body. I fell to the ground, they kicked me for several minutes, but I managed to stand up. They put one handcuff on my right wrist and attached it to someone else's left wrist. But I managed with force to pull my arm away and the handcuff was broken. I ran away towards the Citadel but within seconds another group of security men in civilian clothes blocked my way and they started punching me and hitting me. There were now many security men surrounding me and kicking me. There was blood streaming from my nose and from left eye. My head was very painful.

They put me in a car . . . One security man told me I was one of the troublemakers. I was taken to the Asayish Gishti in Erbil. I was first asked to go to the bathroom to wash my face wash my face which was covered in blood. I was then interrogated in the evening and the person interrogating me kept asking about why I was in the park and kept accusing me of being a troublemaker. I was asked to sign a written testimony. When I said I needed to see what is on the paper he hit me hard. Then I signed the paper without reading it. I stayed there for two nights sharing a room with around 60 people. Then on the third day I was taken to a police station where I stayed for one night before I was released. I was not tortured in the Asayish Prison or in the police station."

That's but one example in the report. There are many more in the KRG who share stories and one of the most disturbing aspects -- something that sets it apart from the arrests/kidnappings of activists elsewhere in Iraq -- is how and when the forces appear. The report doesn't make this point, I am. Forces in the KRG show up as people are on the phone or have just finished a call. It would appear that beyond the physical abuse and intimidation, they're also violating privacy and monitoring phone calls.

Of the KRG, the report argues:

It appears clear that the two main political parties in the Kurdistan region have sought to mobilize their own security agencies and party militants to undermine and weaken the protest movement and are prepared to use extreme means, including excessive force, arbitrary arrests, torture and threats, to achieve their objective.

Throughout Iraq, the press has been under attack. Journalist Hadi al-Mehdi was eating lunch with collegaues (Hussam Sara'i, Ali Abdul Sada and Ali al-Mussawi) "when at least 15 soldiers stormed the [Baghdad] restaurant, beat him and his three friends with rifles and forced them into vehicles. He said that they were taken to a detention centre run by the 11th Army Division, later identified as the former building of the Defence Ministry, and interogated. He said he was frequently beaten during the interrogation, twice given electric shocks to his feet, and threatend with rape." The report also notes the attacks on journalistic institutions. Example:

Journalists covering the demonstrations have been attacked and injured by armed forces or security forces. Several have had their equipment and footage seized or destroyed and some have been detained. On 23 February in the morning, security forces raided the office of the Journalistic Freedoms Observatory in Baghdad confiscating IT equipment and its archive. The organization has been campaigning for media freedom in Iraq for several years, including protesting restrictions on media coverage of recent demonstrations in Iraq.

When you read about Iraqi forces torturing people, grasp that this comes back to their trainers. As World Can't Wait's Debra Sweet observed at the Left Forum last month, on the "Why We Resist" panel, "The way these occupations are maintained and justified is by terrorizing people through this torture, abuse. We know what happened at Abu Ghraib. One of the things we're going to talk about later today in our panel on WikiLeaks is the fact that the US not only knew about but trained the Iraqi military and police in abusing detainees. And that is still going on. So this is one of the effects of the war. So these issues are really important for the occupation." Torture and abuse continue in Iraq and the pattern for them includes the training forces received.

The report concludes calling for the following:

* Guarantee and uphold the right to peaceful protest, and protect protesters from excessive force by police or violence by others.

* Conduct full, thorough and transparent investigations into the killings and attacks on protesters and the assaults and threats made against journalists and others, make the results of the investigation public and bring perpetrators to justice.

* Ensure that security forces and other law enforcement officers act at all times in full conformity with the UN Code of Conduct for Law Enforcement Officials and the UN Basic Principles on the Use of Force and Firearms by Law Enforcement Officials, by giving clear instructions that force may only beused when strictly necessary and only to the extent required for the performance of their duty, and that lethal force may only be used when strictly unavoidable in order to protect their lives or the lives of others.

* Publicly condemn torture and other ill-treatment, and ensure that these abusive stop.

* Conduct full, thorough and transparent investigations into all allegations of torture and other ill-treatment and bring perpetrators to justice.

* Provide victims of human rights violations with financial compensation and other forms of reparation that are appropriate and proportional to the gravity of the violation and the circumstances of the case.

It should be noted that Iraqi officials aren't opposed to all protests. Kelly McEvers (NPR's All Things Considered) reported yesterday on how Ahmed Chalabi is helping protesters . . . in Bahrain.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Little Princess in the White House

BULLY BOY PRESS & CEDRIC'S BIG MIX -- THE KOOL-AID TABLE

BEING CELEBRITY IN CHIEF ISN'T ALL FACIAL SCRUBS AND SKIN MOISTURIZERS. NOPE, THERE'S HARD STUFF TOO. LIKE READING.

LOTS AND LOTS OF READING.

AS BARRY O RECENTLY DETAILED, TO BE CELEBRITY IN CHIEF REQUIRES HIS READING, "GOOD HOUSEKEEPING, MARIE CLAIRE, O, THE OPRAH MAGAZINE, POPULAR MECHANICS" FOR THOSE RARE TIME WHEN HE FEELS A LITTLE BUTCH, "REDBOOK, ESQUIRE" WHEN HE'S TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHAT MEN WANT "AND COSMOPOLITAN."

RESPONDING TO A COMMON CRITIQUE OF HIS ATTEMPTS AT LEADERSHIP, BARRY O REPLIED THAT HE DID NOT DAWDLE OR DILLY DALLY, RATHER "I HAPPEN TO BE DOING A LOT OF QUIZZES AND THOSE COSMO QUIZZES ARE HARD! ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR MR. RIGHT AND NOT JUST MR. RIGHT NOW!"

FROM THE TCI WIRE:

Conor Friedersdorf (The Atlantic) observes, "After the September 11 terrorist attacks, mainstream newspapers and television programs briefly chose to be more graphic in their coverage, rightly judging that sanitizing the events of that day would do us a disservice. But why is it less important to fully confront the reality of what is happening now in Afghanistan and Iraq? The United States Armed Forces has lost 5,885 people in those two countries. When did you last see a photograph of one of their coffins? Has the story of an innocent Iraqi killed by our forces ever flashed across your TV screen? The figures are mere abstractions." Yesterday, AP noted another American soldier has died in Iraq and this "marks the sixth U.S. soldier to die in Iraq so far this month." If that's new to you, see last week's "5 US soldiers have died this month."

Yes, US soldiers remain in Iraq. For how long? Scott Horton spoke with Gareth Porter about this Friday on Antiwar Radio (and about Porter's most recent article):

Gareth Porter: I mention that both American officials -- an American official and the Iraqi intelligence source that I got this story from agree that there's no guarantee that the al-Maliki regime is going to survive this summer. But he is under a lot of political pressure there from a protest movement that the Sunnis are mounting and one of the big questions is whether the Sadrists will join that protest movement? And should that happen, then the short term outlook for the al-Maliki regime is very dark indeed. But there's another factor even beyond that. And that is that the Iraqi military is quite upset that -- that al-Maliki is dawdling over and refusing to go ahead with signing this letter -- sending a letter to the White House requesting the stationing of troops. The Iraqi military which is very close to the US military wants that very badly. And I had a hint -- even more than a hint -- that it could be the case that the Iraqi military would try to carry out its own move against the Maliki regime.

Scott Horton: In order so that they can keep the American troops there --

Gareth Porter: Exactly.

Scott Horton: Which means that they're going to have to fight another civil war against Moqtada al-Sadr.

Gareth Porter: Exactly. Yep. And I think that is certainly something to watch for very closely.

Scott Horton: Well now -- so -- It's been a long time and I know the Supreme Islamic Council ain't what it used to be and whatever, but is it fair to say that the Iraqi army right now, I guess it's the leadership roles that are most important, but that's mostly made up of old Badr corps type rather than Madhi Army guys? Because I know there were a lot of Mahdi Army that went to volunteer for the Iraqi army as well, right?

Gareth Porter: That's right. Although there are some -- in key positions -- there are some Ba'athists as well.

Scott Horton: Well look, if-if Maliki's biggest threat is from Sunni protesters then he's going to really need Moqtada al-Sadr -- which means that he's not going to sign Obama's document.

Gareth Porter: Oh, I think that's right. I mean I am absolutely convinced that this is not going to happen. I think it's very, very unlikely, let's put it that way. I would be very surprised if he were to move in that direction at this point. It just seems to me the factors are all lined up in the same direction.

No one knows what will happen and Porter's an informed observer of the scene so his take is worth listening to and considering. That doesn't make it right. Counter-take on Porter. Under pressure from the military, Nouri signs up for the US soldiers to remain on Iraqi soil. Most likely scenario in which Nouri extends the SOFA?

Factoring in the military, Nouri signs up (if he hasn't already) because he's aware Moqtada al-Sadr is (a) weak and (b) all talk. Moqtada is in Iran. He's made a life there for years -- largely due to the outstanding arrest warrant in Iraq that he fears may be enforced. Moqtada was among those wanting a referendum on the SOFA and Nouri promised that in November 2008 -- swore that in July 2009 it would take place. Never did. He kicked it back and kicked it back.

And what did Moqtada do? Not a damn thing.

Does Moqtada have a great deal of power? That hasn't been tested in a very long time. He had a popular resurgance in 2007 when Nouri ordered the attacks on Basra and the Sadr City of Baghdad. Attacking Moqtada did help build his popularity. However, not enough that Moqtada could fight back. As most will recall, Nouri won that battle, Moqtada caved -- just as he would later do on the referendum -- and went along.

"Caved and went along," many could argue (and some in the State Dept do), is Moqtada al-Sadr's m.o. Moqtada can get supporters to attend a speech or rally. What he can't do -- at least thus far -- is get them to risk their own lives while he remains in Iran. That's been demonstrated repeatedly. Moqtada is popular with a certain international set -- Amy Goodman for example (who notes him and credits him a protest -- that wasn't his protest "across Iraq" -- he is a very minor figure in the entire country, his base is a huge sub-set of Iraq). They love to turn the homophobic and sexist and fundamentalist thug into a cuddly bear. That's not reality. Nor has reality ever demonstrated that Moqtada has the power he's supposed to have.

Should Nouri stand firm against him (again) and should Moqtada attempt to issue orders for combat from Iran, Moqtada might grasp just how much sway he's lost by making Iran his home.

Maybe not, but that is a counter-take. And it is also speculation based on the facts that are known.

It's not know if the SOFA has already been extended; however, Saturday New Sabbah reported that a source in Parliament states that Nouri's Council fo Ministers has voted to extend the SOFA and that they signed the extension as well "during the last meeting of the Council of Ministers." Since US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told US troops Friday that the whole purpose of his visit was to raise the extension of the SOFA, if New Sabbah's source is being truthful, it would appear Gates will be leaving his post later this year feeling "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED." If the extension was signed, did Gates sign on behalf of the US or did US Ambassador James Jeffrey? (Then-US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker signed the original in 2008.) If the extension was done, this is not a "national security" issue and not only should the US Congress be informed but so should the American people.

Alsumaria TV reports Nouri al-Maliki is stating that Iraqi forces are capable of standing on their own. However, Robert Burns (AP) notes, "The U.S. wants to keep perhaps several thousand troops in Iraq, not to engage in combat but to guard against an unraveling of a still-fragile peace. This was made clear during Defense Secretary Robert Gates' visit Thursday and Friday in which he and the top U.S. commander in Iraq talked up the prospect of an extended U.S. stay." Al Mada reports former US envoy (during the Bush administration) Zalmay Khalilzad is visiting Iraq. You can probably guess why. Note that sending in the big guns does not require utilizing Chris Hill -- his reputation in Iraq helps no one. Ayas Hossam Acommok (Al Mada) notes that the US pressure also includes pressure on Nouri al-Maliki to name the security ministers.

New Sabah reports that Parliamentary Speaker Osama al-Nujafi is stating that the US is pressuring the government to extend the SOFA but al-Nujafi is deckarubg that will not happen. Of course, Parliament declared in 2006 that it would not happen -- but it did (with the UN mandate). And Parliament declared in 2007 that it would not happen -- but it did. In both cases, Nouri ignored their wishes and their will and just extended it all by himself. Mohammad Akef Jamal (Gulf News) feels the problems facing Iraq are rather obvious:

One of the current problems is the insistence of Al Dawa party (and the State of Law coalition) headed by Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki, to hold the reins of power, despite the fact that the results of the election were not in its favour. The State of Law coalition, through guile, was able to use loopholes in the constitution, and struck complicated and fragile deals, and added foreign pressure, to remain on top. These actions also saw a clear split between the Iraqi masses and the elite. There was criticism from individuals and also mass demonstrations against government policies.
This year, the demonstrations widened and took the form of angry strikes which flared through many Iraqi cities and governorates, turning into protests against unemployment, and lack of basic amenities, such as electricity.
However, the demonstrations, some of which turned bloody, did not cause the government much concern, as it was able to contain them through false promises.

"Oh my Zeituni!!"
"THIS JUST IN! UNCLE ZIETUNI!"

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