Friday, May 15, 2015

America's jaw drops open





 It's most likely the end of Jeb Bush's run for the White House -- even if he doesn't know that.

This week, the former governor of Florida got attention for remarks he made about Iraq.

His floundering political campaign immediately got massive attention.  This attention was big news for a candidate who had trailed Senator Marco Rubio, Governor Scott Walker and Senator Rand Paul in many polls of candidates vying for the Republican Party's presidential nomination.

Sunday it started with leaks of an interview to be aired Monday in which he declared that, had he been US President in 2003, he would have done what his brother, Bully Boy Bush, did: Invade Iraq.  We noted on Monday how this could give lift to his struggling campaign.  On Wednesday, as he modified his remarks, we went over this again, how it speaks to the Republican base and could advance his standing.  Thursday, Harry Enten and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight 'discovered' the same argument.

They 'find' those answers too late.

Jeb Bush has made a spectacle of himself.

Monday through Wednesday, he was slammed by left pundits and by the MSM press.

This wasn't a bad thing.

Sarah Palin received that treatment and did not run from it.  She used it, she harnessed it and she rode it to political fame and to popularity on the right.

Jeb could have done the same.

The criticism of Bully Boy Bush was always that he was not his father's son, he was his mother's son.  Petty, cruel and mean like his mother, BBB never met a grudge he couldn't f**k.

Jeb, by contrast, suffered from the same image problems their father had.  George H.W. Bush was always having to prove that he wasn't the light weight he appeared to be, the one not quite on the ball, the one who didn't grasp the stakes.

Jeb is his father's son.

Which is why he can't connect with the Republican base.

But this week, he had his chance.

He could show he was someone who didn't betray his own brother to garner a few votes, he could stand for the (illegal) war that remains popular with the GOP base, he could show that he was strong enough to stand against MSM attacks.

And as he modified his statement -- via his own remarks and those of surrogates, he was still okay.

Then, today, he decides to walk the remarks back completely, to disown them.

That's it.

He's weak Jeb Bush, as weak as his father, unable to stand up to the press therefore unable to stand up for the needs and desires of the Republican base.

That was the 'crime' of his father.

That is why his father had only one term as president.

That is why it is Ronald Reagan who remains a GOP hero while Bush, who served as Reagan's vice president, is not anyone the base ever describes as a "hero" -- just someone who's most notable moment even now remains his throwing up on Japan's then-Prime Minister Miyazawa Kiichi.

Jeb spewed a stream of cowardice today.

And the GOP will embrace strength and even get behind false macho.

But they run from weakness (out of fear).

A Republican candidate who can be forced to retract his stated opinion because of a hostile media?

That's weak to the GOP base.

Even those Republicans who might have disagreed with him are going to be dismayed that, after taking a position, he so quickly abandoned it just because he couldn't take the heat from the media.

John Kerry had hoped to make a run for the presidency in 2008.

That dream went up in smoke.

We noted it in real time, the California incident where he shot off his mouth to the delight of some but ensured that he would never be seen as presidential.

Jeb's actions today are very similar.

This is probably the end of the road for his political dreams.

He doesn't grasp that yet.

Neither does Nate Silver's band of thieves.

But after they read this breakdown, Nate's band will probably, in a few days, be humming the tune I've composed.

Jeb will probably remain in denial as long as big money holds up, telling himself that by focusing on New Hampshire, he's ensuring the buzz of strong early victory.

He's probably not going to carry New Hampshire and, having already abandoned Iowa, it will likely be two losses in a row.  If he's stayed in that long, New Hampshire will probably be where the campaign money begins to dry up.

Of course, he's supposed to be the smart Bush so he might read the writing on the wall before 2016 and announce early he's shutting down his campaign.

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