Saturday, August 01, 2020

Can someone escort Nancy Pelosi to a retirement home?





Starting in the US with the race for the president.  Joe Biden has yet to be crowned the Democratic Party's presidential nominee.  They will declare their nominee at their national convention in August.  Until then, he's the presumptive nominee -- and he's presuming a lot.

It was stupid of him to announce months ago that he would pick a female running mate.  Whatever woman is finally picked will not be seen as the best choice -- though she well may be -- but as the best female choice.  Currently, various advocates are insisting that Joe must pick an African-American or Black woman.  Why?  He's already stated that he will put a Black woman on the Supreme Court if elected.  

There is talk of Texas.  The Democrats, some insist can carry Texas.  With a dream ticket?  The reason I ask is Texas has tried dream tickets before.  Texans appear not to see it as a pie when they vote -- a pie everyone can have a slice of -- they see it as zero sum game.  So if X advances, I do not.

This was most obvious in 2002 -- and times could well have changed -- when Texas Democrats had what they and the press dubbed "the dream ticket."  Latino Tony Sanchez was running for governor, African-American Ron Kirk was running for the Senate and Anglo White John Sharp was running for Lt Governor.  

None of them won their race.  Despite the huge amount of press this ticket received -- including national coverage.  In the end, Sanchez got 40% of the vote in his race, Kirk got 43% in his race and Sharp got 46% in his race.  Running as a team did not benefit the group.  There are many variables at pay -- including Kirk's failure to run TV ads in East Texas -- he surrendered it for some reason before the race began.  Right or wrong, many political scientists concluded that the ticket failed to sell their message as lift all boats and instead voters tended to vote their own ethnicity and race.  That may well be.  It may not be.  And that was 2002.  It's 18 years later, after all.

But as Joe makes one promise after another to African-American voters, he continues to struggle to reach Latino voters.  

Had he not announced that a woman would be his running mate, for example, he could run with Julian Castro.  Since announcing a female running mate, the press has been demanding an African-American one -- Susan Rice, Stacey Abrams, Kamala Harris (who would probably be billed Black and not African-American due to her mother's country of origin), etc.  

Loretta Sanchez and her sister Linda Sanchez have both served in Congress, for example.  Loretta has been close to Joe for years.  Is there a reason the press is so hell bent on excluding Latinos from even consideration?  Veronica Escobar not only serves in Congress, she's been a judge.  There are many other who are qualified.  

Joe has a serious problem with Latinos that has not gone away.  His campaign does not know how to reach them.  They have struggled all along with this group.  In May, Laura Barron-Lopez and Elena Schneider (POLITICO) reported:

Joe Biden won the primary in spite of, not because of, his efforts to turn out Latinos. Two months later, Hispanic leaders are waiting on his campaign to deliver on its promises to do more.
In interviews, more than 20 Latino political operatives, lawmakers, and activists said they don’t see a game plan from Biden to marshal Hispanic voters effectively in the fall. They said there’s little evidence the campaign is devoting the resources or hiring the staff that task will require — all the more crucial during a pandemic, when reaching and mobilizing Latino voters through in-person canvassing is nearly impossible.

The campaign has refused to release statistics on the diversity of its staff — details many of his former opponents shared early in the primary — and a majority of a dozen recent high-level hires were white. And Biden has neither spoken to nor been formally endorsed by one of the highest-profile Latino politicians in the country, Juli├ín Castro, since he won.
Biden had a tense relationship with many Latino groups during the primary, stemming largely from his connection to the Obama administration's aggressive deportation policy. The former vice president recently acknowledged that that policy was misguided and he has moved toward progressives on immigration.

But the campaign's disconnect with Latinos appears to be based more on lack of execution than on policy. Cash-strapped coming out of the primary and hemmed in by the coronavirus, its efforts to reach Latino voters have been lackluster, critics in the community say. The fact that Latinos weren't central to his primary strategy has meant Biden's campaign has more ground to make up.

Things are only getting worse.  Refusing to release basic statistics, refusing to court their vote, Latinos may end up being up for grabs.  Harry Enten (CNN) warned last month:

Joe Biden is reaching heights that Hillary Clinton never did this late in the campaign against Donald Trump. The former vice president holds a significant national lead of around 10 points and is over 50% support.
Yet a look at recent polls suggests Trump is outperforming where he was four years ago with a key part of the Democratic coalition: Hispanics. This could have implications for what electoral strategy Biden may need to take into the fall if he is to beat the President.
Clinton crushed Trump with Hispanic registered voters in the final 2016 preelection polls. She led by 61% to 23%. (I use the preelection polls for an apples-to-apples comparison for current polling.) 
Biden, on the other hand, holds an average 58% to 33% lead among Hispanic registered voters in an average of eight live interview polls taken over the last two months. These eight polls were ones for which I could procure a breakdown among white, Hispanic and black voters. All told we are looking at somewhere around 700 to 800 Hispanic voters total.
If we examine polls conducted over the last three months (so that we're looking at 15 polls and well over 1,000 interviews), it's Biden 58% to Trump's 32%.
Doing the math, Biden's margin of about 25 points is more than 10 points lower than Clinton's. This is more because Trump is doing better without third party candidates than Biden taking a lower share of the vote, though both seem to be occurring to some degree. 

His campaign leaders do not understand the Latino vote.  And that's only more clear in the last few days as Bianca Padro Ocasio (MIAMI HERALD) has reported:

Over 90 field organizers for the Florida Democratic Party signed a scathing letter Friday to the party’s leadership, claiming among other things that the campaign is “suppressing the Hispanic vote” in Central Florida.
The seven-page internal letter, obtained by the Miami Herald, contains eight allegations from field organizers about what they say is a lack of a “fully actionable field plan” from the Biden campaign as it transitions into the Florida party to coordinate voter outreach efforts. 
This letter comes 100 days out from the general election and as recent polls show enthusiasm about voting among Latinos in battleground states like Florida could be waning in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Read more here:
Among the claims: mistreatment of field organizers, relocating trained staff members without explanation, lack of organizing resources and taking on volunteers who are then left in limbo.
In a battleground state where elections are historically won by thin margins — and as presidential campaigns ramp up outreach efforts in Florida’s Hispanic communities — organizers claim that the Coordinated Campaign lacks key infrastructure and perpetuates a “toxic” work culture that is hurting morale among on-the-ground staffers.

Read more here:

If you're an undecided Latino voter watching this unfold, you're not getting the message that we're all in this together.  You are getting the message that your needs are not going to be addressed and that while Joe is happy to put an African-American woman on the Supreme Court and to entertain dozens of African-American and Black women for his running mate. Lationas can wait outside the big tent because they're not welcome.

That's not a winning strategy.

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