Time to worry

BULLY BOY PRESS & CEDRIC'S BIG MIX -- THE KOOL-AID TABLE

THIS WEEK WAS THE DAY THAT CELEBRITY IN CHIEF BARRY O SUDDENLY REMEMBERED THE VICTIMS OF HURRICANE SANDY.  HE WENT ON TO VOW THAT HE WOULD NOT FORGET THEM -- THE "AGAIN" APPARENTLY IMPLIED.

CONSIDERING THAT HE SPENT FOUR YEARS REPEATEDLY VOWING NOT HE WOULD NEXT ADDRESS THE BAD ECONOMY AND NEVER DID, WE CAN ALL FIGURE OUT THE FATE OF THE VICTIMS.

THE PRAYERS OF A NATION ARE WITH YOU, VICTIMS OF HURRICANE SANDY, EVEN IF THE PRESIDENT OF THE COUNTRY IS NOT.


FROM THE TCI WIRE:

 

If you believe in prayer, pray for Iraqis.  They now really need all the prayers they can get.  Why?  This is the week that New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman decided he was interested in Iraq again.  Friedman's 'interest' in the Middle East is a bit like Nicholas Kristof's concern in so-called "developing countries" like Cambodia -- you know there's going to be a lot of bloviatin, women are sure to suffer and the New York Times columnists will make it all about themselves.  Here's War Hawk Friedman chewing the fat on the back of his ass:

 

 

For better and for worse, the United States in Iraq performed the geopolitical equivalent of falling on a grenade -- that we triggered ourselves. That is, we pulled the pin; we pulled out Saddam, and we set off a huge explosion in the form of a Shiite-Sunni contest for power.
Thousands of Iraqis were killed along with more than 4,700 American troops, but the presence of those U.S. troops in and along Iraq's borders prevented the violence from spreading.

 

 

 

The lunatic really believes what he writes.  After all the harm he's caused Iraq, grasp that the gas bag won't take the blame for what he did.  So he wants to rewrite it.  'Yeah, things are rough but thank goodness the US landed on that grenade.'

 

Except, of course, that didn't happen.  The US military is largely (though not completely) out of Iraq and the war continues.  The killing continues, the dying continues.  That's not a single explosion or "a grenade," idiot.  No, that's a US-created mine field.  Which the US military was largely pulled off of but ut of but which Iraqis have to try to live in.  Tip-toeing across a mine field daily.   John Catalinotto (Workers World) notes, "Cholera, a gastrointestinal disease, and typhoid, which had been virtually eradicated in Iraq by 1989, made a comeback under Western imperalist occupation.  Today, the electricity and water supply systems in Baghdad are in even worse conditions than in 2008."  Maybe what landed on a grenade was Thomas Friedman's brain?

 

 

If Thomas Friedman had any ethics, he'd be on his knees in public begging forgiveness from the entire world and especially from the Iraqi people for his role in beating the War Drums and cheerleading it and lying and being completely wrong over and over.

 

Yes, we are all wrong some of the time.  And I may be wrong more often than anyone.  However, it's a different level of wrong when your mistakes impact whether someone lives or dies. 

 

For Thomas Friedman, it's all a glib view from overhead with a few tired, worn out phrases casually tossed over the shoulder in passing.  It's not life and death.  Clearly, from his writing, it's not life and death.  But thing is, the Iraqi people don't have the luxury of turning everything into a glib World-Is-Flat cocktail chatter moment the way Thomas Friedman does.  Let us all learn to fear a New York Times columnist with an unshakable belief in himself and a desire to "help" as he understands the word.  There may truly be nothing more life endangering that such a columnist, than such a beast.  ("Himself," "he" and "beast" are intentional word choices on my part.)

 

Today, an Iraqi official made clear that Iraq had less than sunny thoughts about the United States.  Expressing displeasure over the intensified conflict in Gaza (Palestinians and Israelies), the official explained that oil could be used as coercion.  Reuters reported this morning, "Iraq's representative to the Arab League [Qais al-Azzawy] said on Friday that Arab states should use oil as a weapon to put pressure on the United States and Israel over the attacks on Gaza."  AFP notes that al-Azzawy likened it to a move during the October Yom Kippur war, "What happened in 1973, when the Arabs stopped oil exports to Western states, is proof that this weapon can succeed in the battle between the Arabs and Israel."   Later in the morning, Shaimaa Fayed (Reuters) reported that al-Azzawy "later appeared to withdraw the remark, saying Baghdad would make no particular proposal to a League meeting."  Devon Shire (Seeking Alpha) explores the International Energy Agency's recent report offering projections on oil prices and Shire is less alarmed by the price ($215 per barrell) IEA is predicting but how they get to such a low number:

 

The IEA in assuming that oil prices are $215 per barrel in 2035 is assuming that oil production in Iraq will double by 2020 and then increase another 2 million barrels per day by 2035.

Did I miss a memo? Is Iraq fixed?

Call me a pessimist, but I think there might be a real chance that Iraq can't deliver this kind of production growth.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is currently in the process of pulling out of Iraq if it can get a decent price for its interest in the West Quarna project, which is a pretty telling commentary on the difficulty of doing business in Iraq. Exxon is not a company to run away from a challenge.

If Iraq is the central source of future production growth needed to meet future demand, then I think I'm still firmly in the bullish camp when it comes to the price of oil.

 

 

Iraq may very well double output by 2020.  BUt that's 8 years away and, currently, there's no reason to make such a prediction.  Maybe there's hope that a new prime minister (in 2014?) will be able to get things going?  Nouri al-Maliki is in his sixth year as prime minister and still can't pass the 2007 White House benchmarks. 

 

 

The big violence in Iraq today?   Alsumaria reports violence resulting from Nouri's Operation Command Tigris.  Alsumaria reports a clash between the Tigris forces and members of a Kurdish official's protection detail left many injured (over ten and possibly one dead).  All Iraq News reports 1 person is dead -- a civilian and the outlet says all the injured were Tigris forces. Mohammed Tawfeeq (CNN) reports that 1 Iraqi soldier also died and states that clash took place in Khurmato "when Iraqi soldiers attempted to search a house belonging to Goran Najam, a member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, officials said.  Iraqi President Jalal Talabani is the current leader of the PUK."  Sinan Salaheddin (AP) offers, "The clash occurred as police commandos were attempting to arrest a Kurdish smuggler in the city of Tuz Khormato, said Lt. Gen. Abdul-Amir al-Zaidi, of the newly formed Dijla Joint Military Command. When the smuggler took shelter in the offices of a Kurdish political party, police tried to break into the building, but gunmen guarding the office opened fire, he added."  Peshmerga spokesperson Jabbar Yawar tells Alsumaria that this was a personal problem between the two and is now contained. 

 

Differeing details depending on the outlet, obviously.  But what's going on?  What's at stake?  Kirkuk is disputed territory.  It's also oil-rich.  Iraq's Constitution, passed in 2005, explains how to resolve the issue, Article 140 calls for a census and referendum.  By the end of 2007.  Nouri continues to refuse to implement Article 140.   In October of   2008, Corey Flintoff (NPR's All Things Considered -- link is text and audio) explained,  "The potential wealth has made Kirkuk a tormented city ever since oil was discovered in 1927.  Today the city's three main ethnic groups, Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens, are vying for demographic and political control."

While refusing to implement Article 140, Nouri's Operation Command Tigris is seen as a way for Baghdad to take control of Kirkuk.  Jasim Alsabawi (Rudaw) observes, "The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) considers that formation of the DOC as a provocative move aimed at undermining the sovereignty of the Kurdistan Region, and reactions have heightened the tensions between Erbil and Baghdad."  Alsabawi reports:

 

[. . .] Imran Samad, a resident of Kirkuk, believes political goals, not terrorist threats, are behind the formation of the DOC. "We strongly condemn the formation of DOC," he says.

Samad adds that the government not only refuses to implement Article 140, but is violating the constitution and imposing its will with force.

"We fought against former dictatorships and gave the finest sons of the Kurdish people in order to gain freedom and independence, and the Shia were supporters of the Kurdish people through previous periods. But now that they have power, they have forgotten all that and want to govern Iraq as Saddam did," said Samad.

 

 Al Mada noted earlier this week that Kurdistan Regional President Massoud Barzani has been attempting to work out a unified opposition position with Jalal on this issue.  Barzani issued a statement declaring that public opinion is against it and that they have waited for Talabani to solve the issue but no solution has come forward and what is taking place is unconstitutional.  The statement is posted on the Kurdistan Regional Government's website.  In the statement, Barzani notes that there were concerns and fears about the formation of the so-called Operation Command Tigris and it does nothing to help with the application of Article 140.  Instead, Operation Command Tigris was formed with intentions and goals that go against the hopes of the Kurds, against the democratic process and does nothing to help the Baghdad-government and KRG get along.  Barzani notes that he waited so that Talabani would have an opportunity to put into play promises he had made about stopping the situation; however, that has not come to be.  All Iraq News pointed out that State of Law MP Jawad Albzona immediately declared Barzani's statement to be wrong and inaccurate. Not in the statement but also pertinent, Nouri's refused to fund the peshmerga in the latest federal budget which has caused additional problems. 

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